Under the concession scheme proposed by the Administration, the main income of the bidder would be obtained by a rate per capita on the delivery of a public service of specialized health care to protected population (individual health cards) for the municipalities of Collado Villalba, Alpedrete, Moralzarzal, Cercedilla, Navacerrada, Los Molinos, Becerril de la Sierra and Collado Mediano. The bidder should offer a rate based on the protected population of the area, so the highest uncertainty is associated with the evolution of the population.

We reviewed in detail the urban planning of these municipalities and existing population projections for the area assigned to the new hospital. From these sources, diaDro developed population projections for base and pessimistic cases. A key aspect was to establish the relationship between the number of health cards and the registered population in each municipality. In order to do so, it was crucial the entry into force of the sanitary free choice law, for which the user can choose a family doctor, specialist or hospital outside his or her health area.

This estimate took into account accessibility criteria to the hospital in Collado Villalba and Puerta de Hierro Hospital in Majadahonda (main competing), satisfaction survey of hospitals in Madrid and the available data on the number of users who have already exercised freedom of choice so far.