Traffic and revenue forecast for highway from San Juan to Hatillo in Puerto Rico.
The Road PR-22 (Expreso de Diego) is part of the public toll road network in Puerto Rico, composed of six highways. These roads are an important element to ensure the flow of people and goods on the Island as well as an economic growth factor. The highway has two lanes in each direction in most of the route, although some sections of the Metropolitan area of San Juan have up to six lanes in each direction.
The object of the study was to estimate the flow of traffic and revenue during the concession period of the road. The process of estimating the future demand implied:
- Provide a reliable forecast of the evolution of traffic and revenue from the road, for different network configurations.
- Analysis of sensitivity to tariffs.
- Analysis of changes in the management of the road, within the terms of contract, if doing so could optimize profitability.
- Build a traffic growth model that is sensitive to the most important external variables.
- Build the cases (optimistic, base and pessimistic) for the banks.
The project included a wide field work consisting in automatic and manual traffic counts, and origin-destination surveys along the entire road.