Project commissioned by OHL to produce reliable traffic estimates accompanying the Concession tender bid for the exploitation of motorway BR-101 sections. This Brazilian road connects several states: Rio de Janeiro, Espirito Santo and Bahia.
In order to estimate traffic forecasts, main socioeconomic variables were exhaustively analyzed, adjusting growth models which connected historic behavior of traffic with the evolution of such variables.
Additionally, other conditioning factors were taken into account in these forecasts; factors that although not existing in the past could have a major impact on the future behavior of traffic. Particularly the impact of the findings of important petrol reserves in the area could have over its economic activity and thus over traffic.
In short, the work pursued achieving the following key objectives:
- Creating an EMME3 transport model to estimate future demand for the road under different assumptions, well fed and calibrated with reliable data.
- Identification of possible future actions that may affect traffic capture. Development of a traffic growth model for the most likely future scenario based on reliable estimates of other variables related to traffic.
- Estimating future traffic to evaluate the concessionaire’s revenues in the context of limited funding resources on the international market.