The project followed Globalvia’s request to produce an update of the demand model of the Autopista del Sol in Costa Rica, including the update of the traffic and revenue forecast of the concession under different hypothesis of economic evolution and network configuration.
The work entailed completing the analysis done up to date; with the objective to have an appropriate description of the corridor’s mobility and a reasonable simulation of the road’s conditions during the concession period, as well as the conditions of the competing routes.
The study was a base for the concession’s refinancing, hence the importance that the hypotheses were presented very clearly.
In general terms the work included:
- Analysis of existing studies done up to date;
- Field visit and GPS data collection including floating vehicle data along the concession as well as the competing routes;
- Analysis of existing and historical traffic and revenues for all toll plazas;
- Analysis of the existing OD survey (including trip distribution by purpose, travel time on the concession and on the competing routes… etc);
- Analysis of surrounding projects that could potentially influence and change the current trip scheme, or that could give or take traffic to the concession;
- Demand model adjustment (using EMME and including calibration and validation of the network, revision of the values of time, and travel matrix update);
- Review of the expected growth and the mobility in San José’s Metropolitan area;
- Review of Costa Rica’s macroeconomic forecasts;
- Finally , development of a forecast model for three scenarios of economic evolution and network configuration.